报告题目：HPV VACCINATION STRATEGIES FOR MSM IN CHINA: AN AGENT-BASED MODEL ON A TWO-LAYER SEXUAL CONTACT NETWORK

报 告 人：姚烨 副教授（复旦大学）

负 责 人：张香红

报告时间：2025年09月12日（星期五）下午3:30－4:30

报告地点：数学大楼814报告厅

参加人员：教师、研究生、本科生

报告摘要：

Introduction: Despite the high burden of HPV-related diseases among men who have sex with men (MSM), few modeling studies have assessed the health and economic benefits of HPV vaccination in this population in developing countries. With female-targeted vaccination programs expanding, and China recently approving HPV vaccination for males, timely modeling evidence is needed to guide MSM-targeted vaccination strategies and policy decisions.

Methods: We developed and validated a dynamic agent-based model using a two-layer sexual contact network comprising MSM, heterosexual men, and women. Sexual behavior parameters were derived from real data. HPV transmission was simulated under a scenario assuming 90% female vaccination coverage by 2030. MSM-targeted vaccination strategies were evaluated across different initiation years (2025, 2030, 2035, 2040), coverage levels (10–90%), and age-targeting approaches. HPV parameters were estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and a 50-year Markov model calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs).

Results: The model was validated by reproducing HIV transmission, supporting its applicability for simulating HPV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs). HPV vaccination was cost-effective across all initiation years and coverage levels over the 50-year horizon. In most coverage scenarios, delayed initiation yielded lower ICERs, but at the cost of increased disease burden during the delay. When allocating vaccines by age, strategies prioritizing younger MSM consistently achieved the greatest reduction in HPV infections. By incorporating bisexual MSM-female contact, the model realistically captured cross-group transmission dynamics.

Conclusions: This two-layer network model captures indirect transmission dynamics from the heterosexual population to MSM, providing a novel framework for STI modeling in MSM. The dynamic two-layer network, considering 90% female vaccination coverage by 2030, demonstrates the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination for MSM.

报告人简介：复旦大学公共卫生学院姚烨副教授2011年获得复旦大学数学与应用数学学士后，在2016年获得复旦大学数学科学学院应用数学博士、英国华威大学计算机科学博士。从事医学大数据驱动的人工智能与统计模拟研究、医学影像研究中的人工智能技术与应用，主要研究方向为基于马尔可夫模型的参数估计与模拟、传染病数学建模、多类型医疗数据统计分析及医学影像AI应用。其近几年在医学著名期刊European Respiratory Journal、Journal of Infection、eLife、BMC Medicine、BMJ Global Health、Infectious Disease Modelling、Infectious Diseases of Poverty等杂志以第一作者/通讯作者身份发表过多篇论文。研究成果亦已通过各级内参/专报，以政策建议的形式报送各级政府，获得国家疾控局发函肯定与中央政治局委员批示。另外，其已经主持过多项自然科学基金类项目以及若干横向课题，近五年总经费超过300万。姚烨老师先后获得复旦大学仲英青年学者、上海市科技进步二等奖（2/10）、上海市卫生健康青年人才、一健康基金优秀教师二等奖、复旦大学抗击新冠疫情先进个人。